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Bunge Global SA (BG)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Adjusted EPS beat while revenue and EBITDA came in below consensus; BG delivered $2.27 adjusted EPS vs $1.97 consensus, on net sales of $22.16B vs $23.19B consensus and EBITDA of ~$0.73B vs ~$0.84B consensus; management maintained FY25 adj. EPS of $7.30–$7.60 for the combined company . S&P Global estimates marked with asterisks below.*
  • Strong execution and footprint from Viterra drove step-up in Soybean and Softseed Processing & Refining; Grain Merchandising was softer in Q3 with better seasonal setup into Q4 per management .
  • Non-GAAP adjustments were material: mark-to-market timing (-$0.87/sh) and notable items (-$0.54/sh) weighed on GAAP EPS ($0.86), underscoring importance of adjusted views .
  • Capital allocation: $545M repurchased in Q3; net debt now modestly above RMI ($0.9B), leverage 2.2x adj net debt/adj EBITDA; ample liquidity ($9.7B committed facilities) .
  • Near-term catalysts: synergy capture ramps in 2026 with larger step by 2027; Q4 mix shifts (softer soy/softseed, stronger grain); biofuel policy clarity expected late 2025/early 2026 with soybean oil tailwinds thereafter .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well
    • Soy and softseed strength on higher margins and added capacity; Soybean adj. Segment EBIT rose to $478M from $286M; Softseed to $275M from $133M, aided by Argentina, Europe and Global Oils execution .
    • Integration benefits beginning: “unlocking efficiencies—optimizing our footprint, coordinating larger flows, and running at higher utilization” (CEO) .
    • Shareholder returns and balance sheet: $545M buybacks; upgraded credit profile with strong committed liquidity; adjusted ROIC 8.5% TTM (10% pro forma adjustments) and WACC lowered to 6% (adj 6.7%) (CFO) .
  • What Went Wrong
    • Revenue/EBITDA below consensus; EBITDA ~$0.73B vs ~$0.84B est; revenue $22.16B vs $23.19B est; Grain Merchandising EBIT weak ($21M), partially offset by seasonality expected to improve in Q4 .*
    • Non-GAAP noise significant: mark-to-market timing difference of $0.87/sh and notable items $0.54/sh depressed GAAP EPS; reliance on adjusted metrics to assess core performance .
    • Corporate/Other elevated on integration costs; Q3 Corporate & Other EBIT -$268M (adj. -$167M) vs -$130M (adj. -$68M) prior year; integration costs of $101M in Q3 .

Financial Results

Overall results (oldest → newest):

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Sales ($B)$12.91 $12.77 $22.16
Gross Profit ($B)$0.77 $0.74 $1.06
Gross Margin (%)6.0% (772/12,908) 5.8% (738/12,769) 4.8% (1,063/22,155)
GAAP Diluted EPS (cont. ops)$1.56 $2.61 $0.86
Adjusted Diluted EPS$2.29 $1.31 $2.27
Adjusted Total EBIT ($B)$0.49 $0.29 $0.76

Q3 2025 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus (EPS/revenue/EBITDA; asterisks = S&P Global):

MetricQ3 2025 ActualQ3 2025 Consensus*Surprise
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$2.27 $1.97*+$0.30 (Beat)
Revenue ($B)$22.16 $23.19*-$1.03B (Miss)
EBITDA ($B)~$0.73 [GetEstimates]~$0.84*-$0.11B (Miss)

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment performance (Adjusted Segment EBIT, $MM; oldest → newest):

SegmentQ3 2024Q2 2025 (Recast)Q3 2025
Soybean Processing & Refining286 304 478
Softseed Processing & Refining133 14 275
Other Oilseeds Processing & Refining63 26 51
Grain Merchandising & Milling77 29 120
Corporate & Other-68 -80 -167
Total Adjusted Segment EBIT491 293 757

Operating KPIs (volumes; Q3 2024 vs Q3 2025):

KPIQ3 2024Q3 2025
Soybeans processed (000 MT)9,343 12,139
Soybeans merchandised (000 MT)3,070 7,246
Refined soy oil production (000 MT)908 932
Softseeds processed (000 MT)2,135 3,129
Softseeds merchandised (000 MT)178 1,032
Refined softseed oil production (000 MT)696 711
Other Oilseeds volumes (000 MT)665 639
Grain Merchandising & Milling volumes (000 MT)8,964 24,080

Non-GAAP drivers and adjustments:

  • Mark-to-market timing differences impacted Q3: +$246M at total EBIT; +$0.87/sh at EPS level; notable items -$108M EBIT; -$0.54/sh .
  • Corporate integration costs mainly in SG&A: $101M in Q3; YTD $168M SG&A, $20M interest .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EPSFY 2025~$7.30–$7.60 (Recast for combined, Oct 15) $7.30–$7.60 (maintained) Maintained
Adjusted EPS (2H)2H 2025~$4.00–$4.25 (Recast) $4.00–$4.25 (maintained) Maintained
Adjusted Tax RateFY 202521%–25% (standalone, Q2) 23%–25% (combined) Raised midpoint due to combined profile
Net Interest Expense ($MM)FY 2025Low end of $220–$250 (standalone, Q2) $380–$400 (combined) Higher (post-merger)
Capital Expenditures ($B)FY 2025$1.5–$1.7 (standalone, Q2) $1.6–$1.7 (combined) Slightly higher floor
Depreciation & Amortization ($MM)FY 2025~$490 (standalone, Q2) ~$710 (combined) Higher (post-merger)

Note: Q2 guidance reflected Bunge standalone; October 15 recast updated for the combined company and was maintained on Q3 release .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1/Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Biofuel policy (RVO, SRE, half RIN)RSO impacted by policy uncertainty; maintained FY guide; anticipated SRE decision in Aug/Sept Clarity expected by year-end/early 2026; SBO demand tailwind likely; half-RIN feasibility mixed; improvement in SBO crush from early 2026 (Mgmt) Improving visibility into 2026
Viterra integration & synergiesClosed July 2; integration underway; commercial opportunities identified Running as one company; initial benefits in soy/softseed; synergies meaningful in 2026, bigger step by 2027; aim to exceed proxy plan Positive ramp
Segment reporting & footprintPre-recast segments; standalone guide $7.75 New segments (Soy, Softseed, Other Oilseeds, Grain), volumes enhanced; outlook recast for combined company Better transparency
Grain merchandising & storageQ2 merch. challenged; seasonality ahead Softer Q3; expect meaningful Q4 improvement with NA/EU/Australia harvests (Mgmt) Near-term improvement
Capex & mega projectsMorristown commissioning Q4; Destrehan mid-2026; Weston pushed to early 2027 Reinforced timelines; capex to decline post-2026; more cash to buybacks Execution progressing
Capital returns & leverageStandalone liquidity strong; S&P upgrade to A- $545M buybacks in Q3; ~$2B since Viterra announcement; ~$255M left on Viterra program; 2.2x adj leverage; $9.7B committed facilities Shareholder-friendly, capacity intact
Regional dynamicsQ2 soy strength in S. America; RSO weaker in NA/EU Strong Argentina benefits; big Australia crop; China program may shift in 2026 Constructive setup

Management Commentary

  • “We’re beginning to realize the benefits of our expanded global platform… unlocking efficiencies—optimizing our footprint, coordinating larger flows, and running at higher utilization” — CEO Greg Heckman .
  • “Adjusted EPS was $2.27… Adjusted segment EBIT was $924 million… higher results in soybean and softseed processing and refining, with Viterra assets contributing” — CFO John (prepared remarks) .
  • “We expect a softer Q4 in both Soybean and Softseed Processing & Refining… and a meaningful improvement in Grain Merchandising & Milling with harvest timing” — CFO .
  • “Synergies: little in 2025, meaningful in 2026, larger step in 2027; we expect to be at or ahead of plan” — CFO/CEO .
  • “Net debt exceeded RMI by ~ $900 million… adjusted leverage 2.2x; committed credit facilities ~$9.7 billion” — CFO .
  • “Biofuel policy: final proposal likely end-2025/early-2026; improvement in soybean oil side of crush margin early 2026” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Biofuel policy timing and SBO margins: Management expects clarity late 2025/early 2026 with improvement in SBO-driven crush margins from early 2026; half-RIN for foreign feedstocks uncertain operationally but supportive of domestic SBO .
  • Viterra contribution and synergy capture: Early contributions in soy/softseed; merchandising timing to improve in Q4; synergy capture accelerates in 2026, larger in 2027; aim to exceed proxy targets .
  • Segment outlook into Q4: Softer soy/softseed; better grain and slightly less negative Corporate & Other; confirms Q4 down vs Q3, consistent with 2H guide .
  • Capital returns: ~$2B buybacks since Viterra announcement; ~$255M left on Viterra program with intent to continue buybacks beyond completion .
  • Regional flows: Big Australia crop (wheat, barley, rapeseed) supportive; Argentina balance reduces historical volatility risk for BG; potential China program shifts in 2026 .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus: EPS beat ($2.27 vs $1.97), revenue miss ($22.16B vs $23.19B), EBITDA miss (~$0.73B vs ~$0.84B). Management commentary suggests execution and margin capture in processing outweighed softer merchandising and policy-driven customer “spot” behavior, while integration costs and mark-to-market timing added noise .*
  • FY25 outlook: Maintained $7.30–$7.60 adj. EPS for the combined company, implying Q4 softness offset by seasonal grain strength and execution; estimate revisions may drift higher for soy/softseed segments, but Q4 caution and 2026 policy timing could cap near-term EPS raises .*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Core processing momentum: Strong soy/softseed adjusted EBIT with new scale in Argentina/Europe; execution is driving above-peer performance in complex markets .
  • Quality of beat: EPS beat despite revenue/EBITDA miss, aided by mix and execution; non-GAAP noise (mark-to-market and integration) remains elevated—focus on adjusted metrics .
  • 4Q mix shift: Expect softer processing/refining but better grain merchandising with global harvests; near-term set-up is balanced against maintained FY guide .
  • 2026–2027 upside: Synergies accelerate in 2026 with a larger step in 2027; biofuel policy clarity early 2026 likely supports SBO-driven crush margins; setup favors medium-term EPS power .
  • Capital returns building: Mega projects wind down by 2026, freeing cash for buybacks; leverage manageable with robust liquidity .
  • Watch list: Biofuel policy finalization timing, China purchase patterns in 2026, Argentina operating environment, and grain merchandising normalization into Q4/Q1 .
  • Stock narrative: Near-term “prove-out” of Q4 mix and synergy traction; medium-term thesis anchored on combined platform scale, synergy capture, and policy tailwinds—potential catalysts at Q4 call and Investor Day update on mid-cycle earnings .

Appendix: Additional Data and Disclosures

  • Selected cash flow and balance sheet: YTD cash from ops -$503M (working capital), Adjusted FFO $1.18B; cash & equivalents $1.32B at 9/30/25; short-term + long-term debt $15.6B post-merger; inventories $13.31B (RMI $11.51B) .
  • Certain gains/(charges) detail: Q3 corporate acquisition/integration costs -$101M EBIT (-$0.50/sh); reportable segments de minimis/notable .
  • Share repurchases: $545M in Q3; total since Viterra announcement >$2B; ~$255M remaining on the Viterra-specific program .